Client: Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources, Zambia
Emerald Environment Ltd conducted a nationwide Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Projection for the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources, Zambia, to identify ecosystems, infrastructure, livelihoods, and communities most at risk from climate change. The assessment provides the evidence base for setting short-, medium-, and long-term climate adaptation targets across nine priority sectors: Agriculture, Infrastructure, Water, Health, Energy, Forestry, Wildlife, Tourism, and Business & Industry.
Key Findings
Climate projections for 2021–2050 under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 indicate that Zambia will become hotter and drier, with more frequent and severe climate extremes.
- Rainfall is projected to decline by up to 200 mm per decade across Central, North-Western and Copperbelt Provinces, while parts of Southern, Lusaka and Eastern Provinces could experience reductions of up to 300 mm per decade.
- The onset of the rainy season has already shifted by approximately two dekads (about 20 days), with rainfall increasingly beginning in late November.
- Average temperatures are expected to increase by 2–3°C by mid-century, with some parts of Eastern Province experiencing increases of up to 3°C in the near term and 3.5°C under high-emission scenarios.
- Zambia is projected to experience more frequent warm spells, warmer nights, and recurring droughts, with moderate droughts expected every 3–4 years and severe droughts every 5–10 years.
Projected Sectoral Impacts
The assessment shows that increasing climate variability will have cascading effects across the economy:
- Water security: Reduced water availability, combined with rising demand, will threaten agriculture, hydropower generation, industry, and urban water supplies.
- Infrastructure: Climate-related damage to infrastructure is projected to cost approximately ZMW 328.8 million (USD 33 million) by 2030, increasing to ZMW 337.1 million by 2060, according to the Road Development Agency.
- Flood losses: Annual direct economic losses from flooding are expected to rise from USD 25 million under current conditions to approximately USD 55 million per year (0.26% of GDP) by mid-century.
- Agriculture and energy: Annual economic losses affecting agriculture and hydropower are projected to increase from USD 75 million today to USD 250 million per year by mid-century.
Outcome
The assessment highlights the urgent need for climate-resilient infrastructure, integrated water resource management, climate-smart agriculture, ecosystem restoration, and targeted adaptation investments to reduce Zambia’s growing climate risks and safeguard long-term economic development.